IMF Analysis Warns of 40% Job Impact Globally as AI Deepens Economic Inequality
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has conducted an analysis, revealing that artificial intelligence (AI) is anticipated to have an impact on 40% of jobs worldwide, potentially exacerbating existing economic inequalities.
In their report titled 'Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,' the IMF highlighted that advanced economies face a higher risk from AI but are also better positioned to harness its benefits compared to emerging and developing economies. Around 60% of jobs in advanced economies are susceptible to AI impact, particularly those involving cognitive-task-oriented roles.
A novel measure termed 'AI complementarity' indicates that approximately half of these jobs may face negative effects from AI, while the rest could experience increased productivity through integration with AI. AI complementarity refers to the extent to which AI systems can collaborate with and enhance the capabilities of human workers.
The IMF's findings indicate that exposure to AI is 40% in emerging market economies and 26% in low-income countries. Despite some initial disruption in emerging markets, these economies are less prepared to leverage the advantages of AI, potentially widening the digital divide and increasing income disparities between countries.
The report also underscores the potential impact of AI on income and wealth inequality within countries. Historically affecting middle-skilled workers, AI now poses a threat to higher-paid workers. Younger workers may adapt more easily, while older workers may face challenges in adjusting, further contributing to income inequality.
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director at the IMF, emphasized the need for comprehensive social safety nets and retraining programs for vulnerable workers to ensure an inclusive transition amidst the potential deepening of inequality due to AI.
The report concludes with a reminder that the net effects of AI are challenging to predict as they permeate economies in intricate ways. Georgieva stressed the importance of developing policies to safely leverage AI's potential for the benefit of humanity.
The analysis aligns with recent studies highlighting concerns about AI's impact on the workforce. Reports indicate that 24% of UK jobs face the highest potential exposure to generative AI, with a significant increase in job postings related to generative AI tools.
In response to these concerns, policymakers in the EU have provisionally agreed on regulations for the AI Act, aiming to ensure the safe deployment of AI while protecting fundamental rights, democracy, and the environment. The UK has also taken steps to address AI risks, with initiatives such as the Frontier AI Taskforce and safety testing agreements between governments and tech companies.
